I’ve made a general case for poll skepticism, and I should explain why this poll has some chance of being unusually reliable. Selzer has been overseeing polling at the Des Moines Register since 1987, focusing on how to get an accurate read of Iowa. She applies decades of experience and well-tested methods to a simpler task than other pollsters have, working only with a small and relatively homogeneous state.
Selzer’s track record is unparalleled, including Iowa caucuses and general elections. Four years ago, her final pre-election poll shocked complacent Democrats by showing Trump up 7. Several other pollsters were finding a Biden lead, and of the last 37 polls before the election, no one else found such a large Trump lead. Trump actually won the state by 8.
She did pretty well in the 2024 Iowa caucuses, predicting a 48-16-20-8 Trump-DeSantis-Haley-Vivek popular breakdown when the outcome was 51-21-19-8. Perhaps her polls are especially sensitive to Haley voters. In the primary she underestimated Trump’s margin over Haley by 4, while the NH average overestimated by 6, the SC average by 8, and other state averages missed by double digits. (Her last Iowa poll beats ALL the other state AVERAGES!) This supports my view that other polls are missing Haley voters.
A herd of polls disagrees with her. The herd does not predict an epic Harris victory, perhaps fearing the costs of being wrong. Rather than follow the herd, I will follow her. She predicts the election using evidence rather than fear. To me, she is the one true pollster.
Her modest Trump underestimation may suggest treating her results as underestimating him again. So perhaps we should accordingly trim 4 points off the +3 margin so Trump wins Iowa by 1. But if his margin is anywhere near that small in Iowa, he’s doing terribly in similar regions. Harris easily holds PA-MI-WI-Omaha for 270+ electoral votes and victory.
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